What seems way back in December (2007) in my final blog entry of the year I forecast ahead for 2008. So how are the various predictions holding up?
Well I started with saying that it was going to be tough and I guess that's unfortunately been proven right (remember a number of 'experts' were still forecasting a nice sunny scenario, which meant they were either (a) in denial, (b) not much of an expert or (c) both - a point I made regarding the excessive talking up that had gone on since September 2007.
I said that HR restructuring was a big feature (though this has hardly been off the agenda for a decade) and that employee engagement and productivity were going to be central focus.
I believe this to be correct though it's a shame that all of a sudden a number of suppliers have recently joined the 'circus' including some big names without shall we say the necessary expertise. .....
So what else?
So I said:
Expect HR budget cuts - yep though people are keeping quiet and despite some confusing messages, our frontline experience confirms this.
Expect recruitment firm acquisition/merging - a number have been mooted (see various Google comments) with the biggest being announced - Select/Ranstad in May. Expect some carnage in this field as previously predicted last year.
Expect one HR outsourcer to go bust.......In Jan/Fen Zeda part of Midland HR went into administration (see Feb 13th blog) - expect a few more in time
Expect focus on HR operational excellence and people management evaluation - yep though people management evaluation still amazingly only being done by lead group of organisations
Expect agency staff resourcing to fall - Got this one wrong so far as constraining economy has driven companies to do more as opposed to less due to the new rights kicking in
Expect CSR to become yesterday's PR item - growing acceptance this is the case see previous blog and earlier comment in The Guardian this year (amongst others)
Expect 'sustainability' to take its place but people still not having the foggiest what it actually means (to be supplanted by 'corporate resilience' before next year is out!) - yep still think this one on course
More generally
Expect the first university merger - wow Reading and Henley sure brought that one home - expect a few more...
Expect more NHS mergers - happening continually....
Expect unions to get tougher - this one unfortunately padding out as the Government is not being truthful with inflation and its getting cold out there. However the downside is any increase will result in job losses. One serious issue is that the Government is now reliant on 90% of its funds from the Union movement which is not healthy and will only go to exacerbate the problem.....
Expect real estate to continue to fall - I'm afraid so and as I said previously it's the 70s all over again - everybody is just going to have to hang in there for 5 years or more (By the way the real estate market is a giant pyramid selling scheme which we're about to find out - as for the idiot experts who were still forecasting growth/its different this time even in 2008, should I'm afraid be 'hung, drawn and quartered' metaphorically speaking of course......
Expect sub-prime fall-out to go on through 2008 (and some much bigger write-offs) - yep and 2009/10
Expect one council to get caught in the sub-prime fall-out - Not yet though a number of Aussie ones have been caught - plenty of time yet though.........
Expect UK macro-economic overspend and rise in taxes - YEP unfortunately last ten years of so called prudence is going to be well land truly shredded quicker than you can say Arthur Andersen & Enron
Expect some exciting developments in the on-line knowledge search space - yep Microsoft/YAHOO - what took them so long though YAHOO like their independence. Many commentators have been talking about the Microsoft demise and Google's supremacy. I think they have it the wrong way round. I think Google's business model is far more vulnerable than Microsoft's - we shall see
Words for 2008
Expect to hear more of:
'accountability' - yep
'authenticity' - still to come
'productivity' - in spades
'resilience' - definitely on the radar
'lack of visibility' - over-used already
'mashing' - appearing frequently
'talent pool' - overdone
'wikis' - growing nicely
'dead cat bounce' - already here and will happen several times in the next two years
'the walking dead' - many new companies setting up in the last 3 years about to become them
'debt overhang' - MASSIVE, ENORMOUS DEBT OVERHANG
'recession' - Ah yes the R word. Get used to it - Apparently New Zealand is the first economy to be categorised as such in 2008
'systemic' - everywhere
'drift' - littering the various business columns
'competency' (the return of) - coming soon
'value' - more used in the terms 'losing value' or 'lost value'
'worknet' - still on the fringe
'algorithm' - 2008 has seen a number of publications with algorithm in there. Will dominate the HR/HCM space in the next decade
'people science' - that's ours - hands off already here!
'atlas shrugged' (Ayn Rand) - film due out in 2009 one directorship sorted with Angelina Jolie playing lead
'HCMI' - the course is growing as is the Institute.....
