So after the market euphoria/relief and the praise for 'our all-conquering superhero saviour - the prime minister', having waved his magic wand, as he once more flies around the world looking to save it - we have all been able to go to bed feeling a little more safer and secure........
But as in any good horror B-movie you know that the film is too short to end here and there's a nagging suspicion that it was all a bit too easy - 'those thoroughly nasty bankers have all been slayed'. And you'd be right.......
You want to believe everything is ok but you can't stop peeping at the screen - you know - its scary but........
Now comes the critical examination (belatedly). The real monster is the everyday signs of a continuing deterioration of the economic picture.
The stock market recovery
Dead cat bounce - a most unfortunate but very appropriate phrase. As focus returns to the global/local economy signs are not good. Reality will once again rear its ugly head.....
Banks
Actually you may have noticed that it is not all banks that have been nationalised - but particularly those based North. Why LloydsTSB/HBOS should merge now is a mighty big question? A good indicator is that history tells us a merger of two struggling businesses does not produce a good one. Nationalisation also tells us this - try mining, transport and automotive industries here in the UK as examples.
Hedge funds
Last week I said that hedge funds were the wrong target. Last week's unprecedented stock price falls proved the point in spades. But nobody has mentoned this because when mob rules - ignorance reigns.
Banks' rescue plan
This morning LloydsTSB and HBOS share prices are significantly trading below that guaranteed by the Government's rescue terms. Effectively taxpayers have already lost £2.8 billion and we haven't even started.....
FSA/regulation
For many out there (particularly Guardian readers) the finance industry is already regulated to a fair degree. However, derivatives a source of much income for banks was not adequately investigated and lacked regulation. I haven't seen the same clamour for heads to roll there though - after all it is their job........
The Government
The problem with mighty taxation plans is that the focus on where they come from is conveniently forgotten (large receipts from financial services) as our Prime Minister shows a peculiar knack of memory loss - witness various comments and actions under his Chancellorship - the gloating this week has been particularly sickening given the long term damage inflcted in the past few weeks (and months/years ahead).
The Iceland affair/Local Government
Hate and blame has now receded against the banks to focus on 'that nasty Iceland country' and 'those nasty Rating agencies' given the mere £860 million that Councils have invested/'lost'. Never mind the warnings and advice that this was risky from 2007 (communiques were distributed).
As long as we don't take any collective management responsibility of tax-payers money, eh? And just what is the ecomomic efficiency of having taxpayers money locked in some offshore bank account? I'd prefer to have it back please and I can easily lose it on my own rather than the State do it for me......
The Economy
One of the 'crosses to bear' when forecasting/predicting is when the scenarios show up bad news - who wants to convey poor prospects. Well if you're running a business you need to have a grasp of reality as well as remaining optimistic (see some of our previous forecasts). However, optimism sometimes takes a bit of a beating. Every indicator is showing red in the UK.
Nobody seems to have asked as to the reasons the IMF's forecasts show the UK to be by far the worst performing economy over the next few years.
2009.... Bad I'm afraid.....2010 may be slightly better.
At times like this....
Of course, we can all ignore it and stay in a 'healthy state of denial' ( in a Titanic lifeboat kind of way) singing happy tunes and keeping our morale up thus sing with me:
laa....laa, laa...laa-laa, laa.....laa, laa laa-laa.........
If you're happy and you know it clap your hands
If you're happy and you know it clap your hands......
Row, row, row your boat gently down the stream (with a paddle!)
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily life is but a dream....
And finally....
All the above contain elements of governance, leadership, management, performance,reward, decision-making, people management, economics, employee engagement, productivity, performance, measurement to name but a few...and it comes back to people who bear the brunt........
All topics of course on the ISHCM's HCMI qualification. Just think if many of those connected to above had been on it we might just have saved the world in a non-firefighting, quiet and non-effacing manner................
