Yesterday finally saw some reality kicking in to the current challenges facing the economy.
Having first forecast hard times ahead last December(07) and our forecasts made in July (reported as 'gloomily') regarding the probable outcome being similar to the 90s in terms of employment and the effect on HR - it is interesting to see others, noticeably CIPD catching up although they grab the headlines - they have been far too late in seeing the downturn (and what's the point of forecasting what's already known?)
Most are seeing 2009 as the crunch with expectation of 2010 as recovery. I'm afraid they are not right. 2010 will also be tough. 2011 may see some recovery but it depends how big a hole the Government keeps digging........
We have to face up to the fact that the country has been running on empty for several years and have nothing left in the locker. We will get close to bankruptcy (like the 70s).
The Prime Minister, whilst Chancellor has presided over this. In the process, the Government has been writing cheques it can't afford and been encouraging everybody else to do the same.
Understand that no Government is now in control. The markets are. Panicky investors (funds) and savers are now driving policy.
We are now entering a new more dangerous phase that affects all. Keep your tin helmet on at all times!
People management, employee engagement and productivity are critical. And yes there are casualties. That's what happens with irresponsible taxation and distribution and hubris over economic booms and busts. Poor management is just another symptom.
Its quite risible watching the so-called EU co-operation. In game theory events such as these always suggest unilateral action rather than bilateral action will occur. But what have they been doing all this time not preparing for an eventuality such as this? Too busy accepting the tax with ideals rhetoric and too little of anything else.
As for HR, we will see how valuable as a profession/function it is. If its only dealing with redundancies then it will tell us we need to know about its contribution and thus evolution. It will also confirm how many non-jobs we managed to create in the function. Remember that there are still many people employed who need to be correctly/adequately managed.
It has been interesting that as a firm (VaLUENTiS) we are receiving an increasing number of calls regarding employee engagement/survey provision - with clients looking to switch from current high cost (and questionable) providers.
Also the School and HCMI have seen an increase in receiving applications. If that is as a direct result of current economic environment then we can't complain. We are also waiting for an increase in calls on people mangement evaluation and HR spend analysis. Bring it on as they say....
However, economically, be sure that this is only the end of the beginning.......
Comments (2)
We are all being far too negative.
A key issue underlies the financial collapse - the belief in homeostasis inherent in old models of economics and management. So when its seems difficult to go back to where we were before, if feels like we failed.
If we recast the situation as a clearing of the decks, we will look towards what we are going to do.
Ulrich's upper right quadrant - change agent - requires us to identify behaviours that make our business more competitive. What are the behaviours needed by captains of industry right now?
We need to be engaged in helping leaders calm down, focus, and set the course so that we feel there is a future over the horizon. Our opportunity is supporting that process.
Posted by Jo | October 7, 2008 1:23 PM
Posted on October 7, 2008 13:23
NJH responds
Hi Jo
Interesting comments. You're right regarding leader focus. However, from an economic perspective I think we need to grasp the seriousness of the economic situation vis-a-vis banking.
Currently I would suggest that there is another big high street name in trouble as we speak. We can't afford for another High St bank to collapse of this size without severe consequences. As an economy, we have to realise that if banking collapses we go back to, literally, the middle ages.
This is why so much effort is being expended on one industry. The banking industry is much more important to the economy than taxation of profits which the current government is, belatedly, just finding out (and begs the question as to their competence?).
Leadership is all about having the necessary intelligence (knowledge) to foresee and having plans in place as contingency. This is where we have been found sadly wanting.
On the HR front, I would love to see the HR function taking the lead on change and leadership/management focus and I've no doubt some will - as you may be talking from experience.
My concern is that, on evidence, this is so much in the minority that industry-wide it fails to be seen and that in the majority of cases HR, sadly, is positioned in a tiny operational support box. We shall see.....
Posted by NJH | October 7, 2008 3:22 PM
Posted on October 7, 2008 15:22