Hello All
My final blog entry for the year as ever looks at what I forecast at the end of last year and provides a commentary on what I expect next year. Those of you who regularly read the blog have some inkling given previous entries.
But first to last year's forecasts which can be re-read 'One, two buckle my shoe.....Hello, I must be going'. You can also catch up with the half year report - '2008 Forecast....half term report'. I'm not going to add anymore here.
2008: Top Ten HC Global blog entries to date (via google ranking):
1. Train To Gain comes off the rails......
2. Best Companies, DTI and a suitcase full of cash.....
3. Why 2% is a big number.....
4. Employee engagement (still a perennial favourite)
5. Three to tango: The Apprentice, The LSC and Facebook....
6. HCM versus HR.......and the winner is.......
7. 100,000 HR jobs at risk......
8. The meaning of talent management....
9. Carter & Carter - a sad demise.......
10. The future of HR: Which HR are we talking about?
Ahead to 2009 - What's that coming over the hill? Is it a monster?
My thanks to 'The Automatic' for their pop anthem title which I believe is very apt for 2009. Economically, it is probably as bad as 1973 if not worse. That's it really. We just have to face up to it. Getting out of collective denial quicker in 2008 would have helped.
Economically everything is flashing bright red with pensions now the latest to hit the agenda (funny I mentioned this only a few weeks ago!?). Our forecasts of HR jobs and in particular that jobless total will rise to 3 million seems to be more accurate by the day.
For 2009, read 2008 only worse....
Much of what I forecast in 2008 will I believe continue throughout 2009. It's very, very tough. If you want to gauge by how much observe the first quarter of 2009 carnage. (A quick rendition of 'row, row, row your boat.... will help).
People management
As for human capital (the majority with jobs), people management will still be of prime importance. Employee engagement, talent management and particularly productivity and performance will be key as I have been stating now for some time. They of course have a downturn context to them.
HR functions
For HR functions, VALUE-BASED HR is the new brief. Time to let go with the 'three-legged stool' obsession. It does nothing for you because it's a mis-signed cul-de-sac. PERIOD.
I trust that HR's other obsession - namely meaningless accreditations will also finally start to wane. I think IiP as we know it will continue to reverse and that a tipping point will be reached whereby those with the accreditation will be seen as 'behind the curve' rather than on or (erroneously thought) in front of it. The same goes for other 'Best' schemes.
Thus, for the HR function, 2009 is all about budget and what you're doing with it. Interesting to see some accountancies now launching into what we've been doing for the past five years. I'd like to think if as a function you need help, you'll use the profession specialists (like ourselves).
HR professionals
I forecast that for HR professionals these are nervous times. Once past the immediate focus of redundancy-type activity it is worrying. I have advocated for sometime that the profession/function needs to clarify and deliver on a value proposition that is both proactive (as much as reactive) and has a better strategic balance of OD and measurement.
Expect some organisations to shift the onus of people management to line. This happens in downturns. If so, many traditional HR functional roles could well be extinguished. Thus each HR function needs to 'have a plan'.
From a functional perspective, too many over the past decade have spent too much time focusing on 'off-centre' things. You reap what you sow. For example, the debate raging right now as to whether marketing can do HR 's job seems to have overlooked that many HR functions have already become internal marketing departments (but without the analytics) - nothing more than glorified PR operations (don't forget the sweeping brush!).
The end of an era
2009 I believe will see the ending of an HR era (the period since the last 90s recession) which has been dominated with far too much internal function structure focus of negligible (if not negative) benefit. This I believe will finally be replaced with human capital management and a more professional approach both for the 'profession' itself and industry in general - over a transitioning time.
And finally....
For VaLUENTiS and the International School of HCM and latterly the HCMI there are many new things. We are looking forward to 2009. I wish all clients, contacts, students and blog readers the very best of festive breaks. ............'I'll be back' on the 19th January 2009.
Valete......
