We expect a challenging climate for at least the first two quarters of 2009 and feasibly the whole year. It's important to bear in mind, however, that despite significant speculation to the contrary, 2009 will still offer good career opportunities for the best candidates.
The fallout from ongoing market conditions means that organisations, from all sectors, which undergoing restructuring or rationalisation will be looking to HR for guidance - this is a real opportunity for talented HR professionals to make a mark.
The challenge for senior executives will be to balance the cost of full-time HR headcount with value added. HR department costs will be reduced but need to be carefully balanced to ensure that there are enough HR staff to deal with the work load, plan for the future and retain a good work/life balance - under-resourced and overworked staff are neither productive nor motivated.
We expect to continue to see a demand for those with good employee relations, compensation benefits and reward experience. Additionally, those with good organisational development, restructuring, cultural change and M&A experience will be required to help in post deal integration.
We expect to see small pockets of activity in the retail financial services sector and in some of the large, publicly owned organisations committed to high capital investment programmes that are already underway and are hiring organisational development or change consultants to help with structural and cultural transformation projects.
Public sector recruitment is obviously going to be a key factor and challenging positions here are already in demand. Other sectors that we expect to drive HR recruitment include the energy, utilities and pharmaceutical industries and some of the more innovative players in retail.
On the downside, we expect to see further casualties in financial services - especially in investment banking and lending - and also in retail, property and technology.
Finally, for those so inclined, opportunities overseas will remain comparatively buoyant and recruitment in the emerging markets such as the Middle East and in Australasia remain upbeat.
John Maxted
Chief executive
Digby Morgan
