The UK economy remains stuck in reverse.

The UK economy contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to latest revised estimates of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) today (Wednesday 28 March 2012).

This represents a slightly sharper contraction than was previously believed, with the preliminary and first revised estimates both having recorded 0.2% GDP growth for Q4 2011.

However, ONS notes that for the 2011 calendar year, growth came in positive, if weak:

For the year 2011, GDP in volume terms increased by 0.7 per cent.

Double-dip recession is a clear and present danger
So what is the outlook for UK economic recovery from here?

The outlook for the UK economy is uncertain at best.

The UK will officially be back in recession if GDP contracts for a second consecutive quarter, when ONS publishes its preliminary estimate of Q1 2012 GDP growth next month (on Wednesday 25 April 2012).

OBR revises up expectations for UK economic growth...
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is optimistic that the UK can avoid a double-dip recression. Last week, the OBR revised its forecasts for UK economic growth upwards. It expects the UK economy to grow by 0.8% in 2012.

The OBR had previously predicted that the UK economic growth would slow to 0.7% in 2012 (from 0.9% in 2011).

Economic growth is then expected to accelerate to 2% in 2013 (down from its previous forecast of 2.1%), rising further to 2.7% in 2014 and to 3% in both 2015 and 2016.

...but no-one else appears to share OBR's optimism
However, it is worth noting that the OBR is the only prominent economic commentator to have made upward revisions to its expectations for UK GDP growth in recent times. Most business bodies and economic commentators have revised their expectations for UK economic recovery downwards over recent months.

See also:

• XpertHR economic commentary March 2012: Zigzag recovery or double-dip recession?
• XpertHR's economic commentary for April 2012 will be published this Sunday (1 April 2012).
• The image used on this page was sourced from Wikimedia Commons.

Read the complete post at http://www.xperthr.co.uk/blogs/employment-intelligence/2012/03/gdp-data-release-march-2012.html

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Posted 28 Mar 2012 10:30 AM by XpertHR - Employment Intelligence | Report Abuse

Filed under: economics, gdp, economic recovery, office for budget responsibility, economic outlook, economic commentary, double-dip recession, obr