Up to seven million workers in England may lack the essential employment skills (EES) they need to do their jobs by the year 2035.
In what is claimed by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) to be the first study of its kind, it was found that the proportion of workers in England with “substantial” EES deficiencies – meaning the skills requirements of their jobs surpass the skills they possess – may grow from 13% of workers (3.7 million people) in 2023 up to 22% (seven million) in 2035 unless urgent action is taken.
The analysis (The Skills Imperative 2035: Rethinking Skills Gaps and Solutions) used a specially designed instrument to estimate both the EES that people possess (skills supply) and the skills requirements of their jobs (skills demand), before comparing the two to quantify skills gaps.
The study found that workers across the labour market will need to utilise EES more intensively in their jobs in the future.
Almost 90% of the 2.2 million new jobs that will be created in England between 2020 and 2035 will be professional occupations, such as scientists and engineers – roles that require higher levels of proficiency in these EES.
Unless the supply of these skills rises in response, skills gaps are likely to become more prevalent and more problematic.
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Jude Hillary, the programme’s principal investigator and the NFER’s co-head of UK policy and practice, said ministers “should be concerned about the prospect of widening skills gaps and should incentivise employer investment in the development of their workforce’s essential employment skills.
“Allowing these gaps to widen could lead to the stifling of the country’s productivity and act as a drag on economic growth.”
Nearly one in five workers in managerial jobs (for example, HR managers and directors), professional jobs (such as accountants) and associate professional occupations had substantial EES skills deficiencies, the analysis stated.
Workers in jobs such as skilled trades, sales, customer services and admin were more likely to have under-utilised EES skills which they had developed in previous roles or outside of work. Tapping into these latent skills will become increasingly important for employers, individuals and the economy, given the crucial role EES will play across the workforce in 2035.
The NFER said it was vital that government play a more active role in supporting educational and training providers and in encouraging employer investment in skills. It also recommended that employers grappling with skills gaps should consider what more they could do to align expectations and skills assessments between managers and workers across their workforce.
Dr Emily Tanner, programme head at the Nuffield Foundation, said the study underlined the need for employers to adopt a long-term approach to skills and learning. She said: “The robust measurement of essential employment skills in this report provides compelling evidence of the importance of skills for individuals and businesses alike. It demonstrates the need for a lifelong approach to skill development as well as opportunities to put skills to use across all occupations.”
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