As many as 9.1 million people in England are projected to be living with major health conditions such as diabetes, cancer and kidney disease by 2040, potentially posing a massive challenge to employers, the NHS and occupational health.
The figure, from the Health Foundation think tank, is 2.5 million higher than it projected in 2019. Even more worrying, this 37% increase is nine times the rate at which the working-age population (in other words those aged 20 to 69) is expected to grow over the same period (at 4%).
The vast majority of this increase will be as a result of our ageing population, with two million (or 80%) of the projected increase being people aged over 70.
Nevertheless, the impact is likely to be felt keenly within the working-age population too, both among people working into older life and having to juggle work with caring responsibilities. In all, 20% of the increase, or some 500,000 people, will be from the working-age population, it projected.
The research, by the Health Foundation’s Real Centre in partnership with the University of Liverpool, found that 19 of 20 health conditions studied were projected to increase in prevalence.
Health and work
OH welcomes ‘unprecedented’ government focus on health and work
This included a rise of more than 30% in the number of people living with conditions such as cancer, diabetes and kidney disease.
Overall, the number of people living with major disease was set to increase from almost one in six of the adult population in 2019, to nearly one in five by 2040, with significant implications for the NHS, other public services and the public finances, the foundation said.
Much of the projected growth in illness is related to conditions such as anxiety and depression, chronic pain and diabetes, which are predominantly managed outside hospitals in primary care and the community.
This, the foundation argued, reinforces the need for investment in general practice and community-based services, focusing on prevention and early intervention to reduce the impact of illness and improve the quality of people’s lives.
It also projected that improvements in some of the main causes of poor health, such as fewer people smoking and lower cholesterol rates, will be offset by the impact of obesity as many people who have been obese for long periods of their lives reach old age.
The report warns that there is no ‘silver bullet’ to reduce the growth in people living with major illness and that supporting people to live well with illness will increasingly be an essential function of health care and other services in the future.
Its findings also underlined the need for a long-term plan to reform, modernise and invest in the NHS alongside “a bold, new approach that invests in the nation’s health and wellbeing”, the foundation said.
Anita Charlesworth, director of the REAL Centre, said: ‘The challenge of an ageing population with rising levels of major illness is not unique to the NHS. Countries across the globe face the same pressures. How well-prepared we are to meet the challenge is what will set us apart.
“Over the next two decades, the growth in major illness will place additional demand on all parts of the NHS, particularly primary care, where services are already under extreme pressure.
Sign up to our weekly round-up of HR news and guidance
Receive the Personnel Today Direct e-newsletter every Wednesday
“But with one in five people projected to be living with major illness in less than two decades’ time, the impact will extend well beyond the health service and has significant implications for other public services, the labour market and the public finances,” she added.
The health conditions assessed within the study were: dementia, cancer (all types), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, constipation, epilepsy, chronic pain, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, diabetes (type 1 or 2), alcohol problems, psychosis and bipolar disorder, chronic kidney disease, anxiety/depression, coronary heart disease, connective tissue disorders, irritable bowel syndrome, asthma, hearing loss, and hypertension.
