Cases of prostate cancer worldwide are set to surge by 2040, research has suggested, doubling from 1.4 million to 2.9 million, with deaths from the disease also set to rise by 85%.
The research, published in the journal The Lancet as part of its Lancet Commission on Prostate Cancer, has also warned that, while encouraging lifestyle changes and implementing public health interventions will both help, they alone will not be able to prevent this surge.
Governments therefore will “need to prepare strategies to deal with it”, the researchers have argued.
The commission is being led by Professor Nicholas James, professor of prostate cancer research at the Institute of Cancer Research in London and a consultant clinical oncologist at the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust.
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The research has argued that early diagnosis systems will need to incorporate novel mixes of personnel and integrate the growing power of artificial intelligence to aid interpretation of scans and biopsy samples.
“As the rise in prostate cancer is likely to be mirrored by rises in other conditions such as diabetes and heart disease, early diagnosis programmes should focus not just on prostate cancer but on men’s health more broadly,” it has concluded.
With deaths set to rise from the 375,000 reported in 2020 to some 700,000 by 2040, outreach programmes will be needed that harness the broad global availability of smartphones as education tools, the commission has recommended.
Lessons could also be learnt from how low-cost HIV drugs were made available and distributed globally to better meet the needs of men with prostate cancer.
“Additionally, the rapid roll out of studies of Covid-19 vaccines and therapies shows that effective, large-scale trial programmes are feasible and can lead to improvements in care,” the commission has concluded.
“More research is needed into how disease prognosis, outcomes, and treatment effects (and side-effects) differ in different ethnic groups and socioeconomic settings.
“The coming increases in prostate cancer are brought about by rising life expectancy and changes in population age structures. Unlike other large-scale problems, such as lung cancer or cardiovascular diseases, this rise in cases is not preventable by public health strategies.
“Nonetheless, the effects of the global rise in prostate cancer can be mitigated. The findings in this Commission provide a pathway forwards for health-care providers and funders, public health bodies, research funders, governments, and the broader patient and clinical community,” it has added.
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Separately, the number of people in the UK diagnosed with bowel cancer will rise by around a tenth by 2040, according to predictions by the Bowelbabe Fund for the charity Cancer Research UK. Its researchers have projected that, if current trends continue, bowel cancer cases will rise from 42,800 to 47,700 each year.
This means there could be an average of around 2,500 more deaths from bowel cancer per year, Cancer Research UK has also warned. The UK’s growing and ageing population is behind this increase in numbers, the charity has highlighted, as older people are more likely to get cancer.
