Kidney disease risks becoming “a public health emergency” that could overwhelm the NHS within a decade, a charity has warned.
Kidney Research UK has argued that cases are now growing so rapidly – driven by rising rates of obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure and cardiovascular disease – that the condition could be costing the economy £13.9bn a year in a decade if things don’t improve.
The report, Kidney disease: a UK public health emergency, has calculated that the current economic burden of kidney disease in the UK is £7bn per year, with £6.4bn of this being direct costs to the NHS. In all, the condition now represents approximately 3.2% of total NHS spending across the four nations.
However, by 2033, if projected figures for the number of dialysis patients are realised, those figures could rise to as much as £13.9bn, and £10.9bn for the NHS.
A total of £372m was being lost to the UK economy every year from missed work because of time off for dialysis alone, a figure that could rise to £2bn by 2033, the charity predicted.
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The key driver to future costs is this potential growth in demand for dialysis – an essential treatment for patients who have reached kidney failure.
A total of 30,000 adults and children are currently on dialysis, taking existing NHS capacity to its limits, the charity warned.
Using predictive modelling approaches, the report found that, by 2033, the number of people in need of dialysis treatment could rise to as many as 143,000. This would mean existing capacity would need to grow by almost 400% to meet essential demand.
There are estimated to be 7.19 million people in the UK currently living with chronic kidney disease, more than 10% of the entire population, the charity has said.
While 3.25 million of those are at the most severe stages, a further 3.9 million people are thought to be living with the early stages of kidney disease, which is frequently undiagnosed and shows no symptoms. Yet many of these could progress to needing medical intervention.
By 2033, the charity has predicted the total number of people with chronic kidney disease will increase to 7.61 million.
The main reason for this increase is rising rates of people with diabetes, high blood pressure, cardiovascular disease and obesity, all of whom are at increased risk of developing kidney disease.
The charity is calling for chronic kidney disease to be made a priority in government and NHS long-term health plans, including the forthcoming Major Conditions Strategy and NHS Long-Term Plan Update for England and equivalent plans in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Despite the costs of treatment, in 2021/22 kidney disease received just 1.4% (£17.7m) of relevant government research funding, the charity said. It is calling for this to rise to at least £50m a year and for prevention to be a clear priority.
It has also said there needs to be more tests for people at risk of kidney disease so fewer reach kidney failure.
Among key interventions and improvements, the charity has said earlier and improved diagnosis would help, including targeting under-served populations through outreach programmes to improve screening opportunities and increase early diagnosis.
Improved management of chronic kidney disease for patients who are either untreated or not receiving standard care according to clinical guidelines would also be beneficial. Included within this would be better blood pressure management.
The charity has called for greater use of new medications such as SGLT-2 inhibitors, a medication used in diabetes treatment but which also slows progression of kidney disease.
Increased rates of transplantation, specifically pre-emptive transplants that would prevent people needing dialysis, could also be cost saving for the NHS, it has argued.
Finally, it has said decisions made by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) about whether the NHS should fund treatments should be based on a cost-effectiveness model.
The charity has asked people across the UK to join them in calling for government action on kidney disease. This includes writing to their MPs to ask them to attend a parliamentary event in September to hear more about the findings from the report.
Sandra Currie, chief executive of Kidney Research UK, said: “These figures are a stark warning. Kidney disease has reached the point of being a public health emergency for the UK and, unless serious action is taken, the NHS risks being overwhelmed with demand.
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“There is no cure for kidney disease; a transplant does not last a lifetime and dialysis patients face hours of gruelling treatment every week, taking them away from loved ones and making it harder to work.
“We know the only hope for stopping the growth of kidney disease and the increasing burden to the health system, the economy and to patients is better prevention strategies, earlier diagnosis and better treatment options, and yet kidney disease isn’t even included in NHS long-term strategic plans,” Currie added.
