As many as 4.3 million people could be languishing out of work because of sickness and ill health by the end of this parliament (2029) if the UK does not change direction, a hard-hitting report is set to warn.
The 4.3 million will be an increase of 1.5 million on the estimated 2.8 million people currently out of work because of sickness, the tenth and final report from the Institute for Public Policy Research’s cross-party Commission on Health and Prosperity will argue.
The report, due to be formally launched tomorrow, has added that, as of the end of last year, an extra 900,000 workers were missing from employment because of ill health.
Bringing these 900,000 alone back into the workplace could mean recouping an estimated £5bn in lost tax receipts in 2024, while better population health generally could save the NHS £18bn per year by the mid-2030s, the commission has argued.
The commission was chaired by chaired by surgeon Lord Ara Darzi – who last week published his review of the state of the NHS – and former chief medical officer for England Professor Dame Sally Davies.
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Some occupations – including elementary occupations, and caring, leisure and service roles – have seen particularly high rates of workers becoming inactive because of sickness, the commission will say.
The rate of inactivity because of sickness is highest among the working-age populations of Northern Ireland, the north east of England, and Wales.
The commission began working in early 2022 and was first to identify economic inactivity because of sickness as a major post-pandemic challenge. It has concluded that better health is Britain’s greatest untapped path to prosperity.
Austerity and the Covid pandemic “have left the UK the literal sick man of Europe”, the commission has argued, with long-term health conditions rising, healthy life expectancy stagnating, economic inactivity increasing, a growing mental health crisis, and regional health inequalities intensifying.
Among its stark findings, the commission report has calculated almost 1,600 fewer infants would have died between 2020 and 2022 if improvements in infant mortality had continued at the same rate as between 2001 and 2015.
The commissioners, who include Manchester mayor and former health secretary Andy Burnham and Lord James Bethell, a former Conservative health minister, have concluded that the UK’s worsening public health crisis is linked to our faltering economic performance. Better health is the most important medicine our economy needs for the faster growth, the report will argue.
To that end, the UK needs a health model that moves beyond just intervening when people get sick towards a system which creates good health in all realms of life – including work, school and home.
The overarching goal for the health creation system would be to add 10 years to healthy life expectancy by 2055 and to halve regional health inequalities, it recommended.
Its recommendations include taxing health polluters, including tobacco, alcohol and unhealthy food companies, to raise more £10bn per year by the end of the parliament, which could fund new good health schemes such as a fresh fruit and vegetable subsidy.
It has called for the establishment of ‘Health and Prosperity Improvement’ (HAPI) zones. These would be modelled on Clean Air Zones, with new powers and national investment to rebuild local health infrastructure – such as swimming pools and green spaces – in the most health-deprived areas.
There should be a ‘right to try’ for people on health or disability benefits. In other words, an ironclad government commitment of a guaranteed period where people in receipt of benefits can ‘try’ work with no risk to welfare status or award level.
This would last months and be for everyone with a long-term condition or disability, regardless of what other reforms to health benefits look like.
The establishment of new ‘neighbourhood health centres’ in every part of the country will be another recommendation. These would be a one-stop shop for diagnostics, primary care, mental health and public health with a focus on prevention.
The commission is also recoemmending the creation of a new ‘health index’. Like GDP, the health index would provide a snapshot of how the nation’s health is changing – in a single number – to help monitor progress, the commission argued.
Health secretary Wes Streeting, who will be speaking at the formal launch of the report tomorrow, has welcomed the findings. “I have valued engaging closely with the Commission on Health and Prosperity. I want to make DHSC [the Department of Health and Social Care] a department for economic growth, because we won’t build a healthy economy without a healthy society. The IPPR are at the forefront of this approach, and I look forward to studying their ideas closely,” he said.
Lord Ara Darzi said: “Our commission was among the first to identify the rising sickness as a major and immediate post-pandemic fiscal challenge. Now, as the government sets up its health mission, our final report provides a ready-made policy vision for a new approach to public health.”
Dame Sally Davies added: “I have long argued that better health is Britain’s greatest, untapped resource for happiness, economic growth and national prosperity. This commission has now provided the irrefutable evidence that this is true. A government that wants to deliver growth, sustainable public services and fairness throughout Britain needs to take note.
“One of the most impactful choices they could make is to prioritise a new beginning on childhood health. No one would question that education is both about a child’s immediate wellbeing and their long-term economic prospects. The same is true for health. We simply should not tolerate decline in our children’s health any longer – it is time for bold action to ensure a health inheritance for future generations.”
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