Nearly a quarter of working-age adults will have been diagnosed with a major illness by 2040, a health think-tank has predicted, as the health consequences of our ageing workforce and wider health inequalities begin to bite.
The forecast from the Health Foundation is that as many as 3.7 million working-age adults in England will be juggling work with ill health by 2040, up from three million in 2019.
The vast majority, 80% (or 540,000 people), of this increase will be seen in more deprived areas, with significant implications for labour markets and the potential to entrench and deepen health inequalities.
The foundation has said action from government, public services and employers will be needed to address these rising levels of ill health.
Employers already face significant challenges caused by rising economic inactivity, the Health Foundation has warned.
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The report argued this is a challenge that is not going away and could lead to more people leaving the workforce, thereby reducing labour supply and undermining efforts to increase economic growth.
The foundation’s director of health Jo Biddy said: “Good health is our most precious asset, and a healthy workforce is the backbone of any thriving economy. We are already seeing the impact of poor health on the economy, with record numbers of people out of the workforce.
“Without action, the number of working-age people living with major illness is set to increase, particularly in the most deprived areas of the country.”
The report is the second from a research programme led by the foundation’s REAL Centre in partnership with the University of Liverpool.
The first report projected that the total number of people living with major illness would increase to 9.3 million in 2040, an increase of 2.6 million people from 2019.
The latest report finds that, without action, stark health inequalities are projected to persist up to 2040, with people in the most deprived areas of England likely to develop major illness 10 years earlier than those in the least deprived. They are also three times more likely to die by the age of 70.
A handful of conditions will contribute to most of the health inequality, such as chronic pain, type 2 diabetes and anxiety and depression. These are projected to grow at a faster rate in the most deprived areas.
These conditions have a significant impact on quality of life and may limit people’s ability to work for long periods of time. They are also typically managed by GPs or in the community, underlining the importance of investing in primary care and focusing on prevention and early intervention.
On current trends, the government’s target to improve healthy life expectancy by five years by 2035 and narrow the gap between the areas with the best and worst health will be missed by a significant margin, it said.
With Labour also proposing measures to improve healthy life expectancy and reduce health inequalities in their health mission, the report underlines the need for the parties to set out the action they will take to improve working-age health ahead of the forthcoming General Election.
The report concludes that action beyond the NHS is needed to address poor health. Policies focused on the risk factors of ill health – smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity and harmful alcohol consumption – are essential but insufficient to tackle health inequalities.
The report has also called for a long-term, cross-government approach to address the underlying causes of ill health, such as poor housing, inadequate incomes and poor-quality jobs.
More investment in the NHS, local authorities and the voluntary sector will be needed to manage higher demand for services, especially in the most deprived areas. Equally, there will be a greater need for employers to do more to improve working conditions and support the wellbeing of their staff.
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Ann Raymond, economist at the REAL Centre, said: “The findings from this report clearly demonstrate how people living in more deprived areas develop major illness earlier, live for longer in poor health and die younger than their counterparts in less deprived areas. These inequalities will remain stubbornly persistent over the next two decades if current trends continue.
“This report should be a wake-up call for politicians ahead of the General Election about the need for action to address rising ill health – our future health and prosperity as a nation depends on it.”
