The number of junior doctors striking last month has declined by almost one-third since their first strike, according to official figures from NHS England.
Junior doctors first walked out in March 2023 in a three-day strike coordinated by the British Medical Association (BMA) and the Hospital Consultants and Specialists Association (HCSA). Attendance figures showed that, on average, 28,708 staff were absent each day as a result of industrial action.
In April that figure fell to 26,415 and by June it stood at 23,158. Last month, junior doctors walked out for five days from 14-18 July. Not including the weekend during that strike, on average, 19,823 staff were absent each day because of industrial action – a 31% fall compared to March.
According to NHS sources, there are several potential explanations for the reduction. March data included industrial action by members of the British Dental Association who are hospital dentists employed on a junior doctor contract, while the subsequent strikes did not.
Any junior doctors who had booked annual leave during the scheduled strike dates would not be recorded as absent due to industrial action. This could explain the reduction in striking junior doctors in June and July, as more physicians took summer holidays, as well as in April when the strikes were held during the Easter break.
Junior doctors strikes
Junior doctors to strike in August
One junior doctor member of the BMA, working at a London hospital, told Personnel Today that as the strikes have progressed, some members have opted to work in order to avoid the financial hit.
“Most of my colleagues have been quite pragmatic about others ‘crossing the picket line’,” she said. “While they support the strike and are pushing for pay restoration, they’re not going to be called a ‘scab’ because they can’t afford to have their pay docked.
“We’re striking during a cost-of-living crisis, so striking for five days is a big financial hit at the end of the month, and the cumulative impact of that over many months can’t be ignored.”
She added that, depending on when strikes are called, junior doctors may have specific demands that relate to their training, which means that going on strike can have an impact on their studies as well as their pay.
The July strikes were held days after the government accepted the pay recommendations of the Review Body on Doctors’ and Dentists’ Remuneration (DDRB), meaning junior doctors in England will get a 6% pay increase plus a £1,250 consolidated increase.
This has led some to believe that the appetite for strikes is waning, but the BMA has said that NHS England’s data is not reliable, because some hospital trusts do not report their figures.
Dr Vivek Trivedi, co-chairman of the BMA’s junior doctors committee, said: “This data is unreliable as according to NHS England’s own figures, a large number of hospital trusts have not returned any kind of specific information about how many junior doctors have been on strike on a given day. No doctor or statistician would attempt to draw conclusions from this.
“On the other hand, we can clearly come to the conclusion this government is still refusing to come to the negotiating table, is still refusing to provide any kind of credible offer and is seemingly content to see strike after strike by junior doctors in England. The longer the prime minister or the health secretary refuse to sit down and talk, the longer this industrial action will continue.”
Personnel Today analysis of NHS England’s data showed that of the 268 NHS trusts listed, only 141 trusts had submitted numbers for every day of the junior doctors’ strikes.
In those 141 trusts, an average of 23,410 staff were absent each day due to strike in March, compared to 16,621 in July (not including weekend strike days) – a 29% reduction.
Junior doctors walk out again in England at the end of next week, from 11-14 August, while consultants are striking on 24-25 August.
A true measure of the support for strike action among junior doctors is fast approaching as the BMA will announce the result of its re-ballot for industrial action, which closes on 31 August. Last month, the HCSA announced that 96.5% of its junior doctor members had voted in favour of strike action, extending its mandate until 4 January 2024.
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