Number of strokes will rise 51% by 2035, warns charity

The number of new strokes will increase by 51% from 100,000 to 151,000 by 2035, a charity has warned, costing more than £75bn – about half the current NHS budget.

The stark warning has come in an analysis from the Stroke Association, which is calling for better approaches to prevention, treatment and recovery to be included in parties’ manifestos for the upcoming General Election later this year.

A combination of an ageing population, lifestyle factors and insufficient action on prevention not only means the number of attacks happening will rise, but also the size of the survivor population.

This, the Stroke Association has said, will increase by 62% from 1.3 million to 2.1 million, nearly matching the current population of Slovenia.

Currently, one in four attacks happen to people of working age. More than a third (37%) of working-age survivors give up work following their stroke, meaning that, by 2035, there will be more than 173,000 survivors missing from the workforce, the charity has said.

The current loss of productivity because of the condition is £1.6bn, which is set to increase by 136% by 2035. By 2035 there could be as many as 151,000 new hospital admissions per year, or 414 per day, it added.

Juliet Bouverie, chief executive at the Stroke Association, said: “The demand for NHS services will be unsustainable by 2035.

“If the next government fails to tackle prevention, treatment, and recovery at the root, then stroke will become the most avoidable burden on the NHS. Every stroke is a tragedy, but 151,000 strokes per year, and growing each year, will be a failure of leadership.

“In 2000, stroke was the second leading cause of death in the UK but by making stroke a national priority reflected in local resources, stroke mortality was halved by 2010. So, change is possible,” she added.

For every minute a stroke goes untreated, 1.9 million brain cells die, the charity has pointed out. Last year, only 40% of patients were admitted to specialised care units within the four-hour target, a considerable decline from 55% pre-pandemic.

At present, 60% of patients who survive will be left with a disability. For many, this means not being able to walk, write, speak or even see or swallow.

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Recovery is possible but often requires rehabilitation such as physiotherapy, occupational therapy and speech and language therapy, the charity has said. Few patients receive the recommended dose of rehabilitative therapies they need.

To that end, the charity is calling for the government to publish a funded stroke prevention plan, make sure that the treatment thrombectomy is universally available 24/7, and ensure that all survivors can access the rehabilitation support they need, in line with national guidelines.