One in eight workers need reskilling by 2030 to aid the UK’s transition to a net-zero economy, as just a third of new jobs will be direct replacements for existing roles.
A report from global change consultancy Bain & Company finds that the impact of the transition to a low carbon economy will go far beyond the creation of up to 500,000 new jobs it believes will be created; around four million UK workers will need to retrain, requiring a cohesive strategy from the government and businesses.
This is likely to be challenging as the UK’s training ecosystem was not designed for the scale or pace of reskilling that is required, it claims. At the peak of the transition, up to 800,000 workers will need retraining, it estimates.
However, about 40% of the reskilling will be low intensity and can most likely be provided by employers, the report says.
Reskilling for net-zero
Continuous learning can help business out of the skills crisis
Around 8,000 trainers will be needed, about half of whom will need to be engaged by employers. The remaining half will be spread across colleges, universities and independent training providers.
“Any economic transition on this scale will have a disruptive impact on the workforce of a nation, but it is the unprecedented pace of the net zero transition that brings a unique set of challenges,” said Julian Critchlow, a partner in Bain & Company’s energy practice.
“To put the transition into perspective, the UK’s efforts to reduce coal use took 60 years and impacted the nation’s economy, politics, and communities – the transition to net zero is set to take place within a period of just over a decade.”
The vehicle manufacturing sector will see the most change as low-emission vehicles (LEVs) are less labour-intensive to manufacture and service than internal combustion engine equivalents.
The home heating sector will see the most jobs created, as up to 170,000 new heat pump installer roles will be required – outweighing the 60,000 jobs that will be lost as gas boilers are phased out. Bain & Company claims it will take only three days to upskill a gas boiler engineer in heat pump installation.
Increasing the capacity of the electricity network will require 130,000 more workers, while jobs in sectors that rely on fossil fuels – such as oil well engineers and liquefied natural gas transport workers – will disappear.
The report says: “Over 80% of new roles created by the energy transition will be added by 2030. Workers are needed immediately to install energy efficiency measures, build electricity infrastructure, and manufacture and repair LEVs – well ahead of 2050. These new, on average higher-paying roles could result in a 2% to 3% increase in UK gross value added by 2030.
“It’s worth noting that only 15% of reskilling is directly related to decarbonising energy. The UK’s transition will be economy-wide.”
Other roles that will require reskilling include those in transport, construction, agriculture, manufacturing, real estate and education.
Timely reskilling will be most valuable in the West Midlands and Scotland, which will see the greatest proportionate turnover of roles.
About a third of the UK’s vehicle assembly and supply chain is in the West Midlands, which houses major manufacturers including Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin. However, Tata Motors chose Somerset for its “giga-factory” to supply Jaguar Land Rover vehicles.
To encourage employers to engage with the transition to net zero, the report calls for reputational incentives such as a “Green Champions” scheme, with the government offering financial support and holding companies accountable for skills reporting metrics. A skills passport based on mutually recognised standards could also be valuable.
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