Artificial intelligence will impact almost 40% of jobs globally, rising to 60% in advanced economies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has found.
The UN agency’s analysis of AI and the future of work states that jobs in advanced economies are at greater risk of displacement because of the prevalence of “cognitive-task-oriented jobs”, but these countries are better poised to exploit the benefits of AI than emerging and developing economies.
AI will have an impact on around 26% of jobs in low-income countries and 40% in emerging markets, the report estimates.
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Unlike previous waves of automation which affected mostly “middle-skilled” workers, higher wage earners are the most likely to lose jobs as AI becomes more prevalent. However, the report notes that simulations suggest that higher-wage earners can expect a more-than-proportional increase in their income, which will exacerbate inequality.
If AI complements human labour in certain occupations, resulting in productivity gains, higher growth and labour demand could “more than compensate for the partial replacement of labour tasks by AI, and incomes could increase along most of the income distribution”, it says.
People who have completed higher education are better prepared to move into jobs that complement AI, while older workers are among the most vulnerable to job losses as they may struggle to adapt to new technology and be reluctant to retrain or learn new skills.
Women are also among those more exposed to AI because of their prevalence in the services sector, but are also among the most likely to benefit from it.
“In the long term, workers will adjust to changing skill demands and sector shifts, with some potentially transitioning to high-AI-complementarity roles and some struggling to adapt,” the report says.
“AI adoption may destroy some jobs (and displace the associated workers) and create or enhance others – but whether the incumbents are the ones who can reap the associated benefits is unclear. The employment effects will likely depend on worker characteristics, which in turn will affect their adaptability. Historical data suggest that some workers may struggle to adapt to technology-induced shifts in the job market.”
The report recommends that advanced and more developed countries could develop regulatory frameworks to ensure they are making the most of AI and are investing in complementary innovations, while low income countries should prioritise digital infrastructure and investment in people.
“With such investments, AI could help alleviate skill shortages, expand the provision of health care and education, and improve productivity and competitiveness in new sectors,” the report says.
Kate Redshaw, head of practice development in the employment law team at law firm Burges Salmon, said: “With retention of talent a continuing focus for employers, organisations who are willing to approach the deployment of AI, on a task-by-task rather than a role-by role basis, may benefit.
“By identifying which of a worker’s tasks can effectively be delivered using AI (and these tasks may often be mundane in nature), the employer can free up time to allow the worker to do other, more valuable and interesting work. Equally organisations need to be careful not to throw the baby out with the bathwater – just because a task can be done by AI, doesn’t mean it should be.”
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