Personnel Today
  • Home
    • All PT content
  • Email sign-up
  • Topics
    • HR Practice
    • Employee relations
    • Learning & training
    • Pay & benefits
    • Wellbeing
    • Recruitment & retention
    • HR strategy
    • HR Tech
    • The HR profession
    • Global
    • All HR topics
  • Legal
    • Case law
    • Commentary
    • Flexible working
    • Legal timetable
    • Maternity & paternity
    • Shared parental leave
    • Redundancy
    • TUPE
    • Disciplinary and grievances
    • Employer’s guides
  • AWARDS
    • Personnel Today Awards
    • The RAD Awards
  • Jobs
    • Find a job
    • Jobs by email
    • Careers advice
    • Post a job
  • Brightmine
    • Learn more
    • Products
    • Free trial
    • Request a quote
  • Webinars
  • Advertise
  • OHW+

Personnel Today

Register
Log in
Personnel Today
  • Home
    • All PT content
  • Email sign-up
  • Topics
    • HR Practice
    • Employee relations
    • Learning & training
    • Pay & benefits
    • Wellbeing
    • Recruitment & retention
    • HR strategy
    • HR Tech
    • The HR profession
    • Global
    • All HR topics
  • Legal
    • Case law
    • Commentary
    • Flexible working
    • Legal timetable
    • Maternity & paternity
    • Shared parental leave
    • Redundancy
    • TUPE
    • Disciplinary and grievances
    • Employer’s guides
  • AWARDS
    • Personnel Today Awards
    • The RAD Awards
  • Jobs
    • Find a job
    • Jobs by email
    • Careers advice
    • Post a job
  • Brightmine
    • Learn more
    • Products
    • Free trial
    • Request a quote
  • Webinars
  • Advertise
  • OHW+

Economics, government & businessHR practiceJob creation and lossesLabour marketRecruitment & retention

Record UK employment? Not until we get 2.8 million more private-sector jobs

by John Philpott 23 Jan 2013
by John Philpott 23 Jan 2013

Another month, another set of mixed official figures on the UK labour market. Those who know me are aware of how desperate I am to see a return to full employment. But unlike commentators with a political or commercial vested interest in talking things up, my approach is always to make a fair assessment of the state of play. And it’s not as good as some want us to think.

I have already commented publicly today on how our “jobs without growth” economy is a sign of economic weakness sustained only by falling productivity and a severe squeeze on real pay levels – not success. This can’t go on forever, and evidence of a sharp jump in redundancies at the end of 2012 – well before the current spate of job cuts announced this month – could spell the beginning of the end. But what really bugs me is constant talk of the UK’s “record number of people in work”. This bald statistical statement conveniently glosses over the fact that the true measure of a country’s employment performance is its employment rate, the proportion of people in work, which takes account of population.

Sign up to our weekly round-up of HR news and guidance

Receive the Personnel Today Direct e-newsletter every Wednesday

OptOut
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

The UK employment rate fell sharply between 2008 and 2010, stabilised between 2010 and 2011, but despite subsequent improvement remains 1.7 percentage points below the pre-2008 recession peak of 60.3%. Without any further rise in population, the total number of people in work would have to increase by more than 900,000 for the employment rate to return to the 2008 peak. However, on current official population projections, a return to the 2008 peak employment rate will require a net increase in employment of 2.2 million individuals in order to offset the effect of population growth.

Adjusting for the projection of the Office for Budget Responsibility that public-sector employment will fall by a further 600,000 between the start of 2013 and the start of 2018, the estimated number of jobs needed to restore the 2008 employment rate implies a required net increase in private-sector employment of 2.8 million. With a normal pace of employment growth, this is unlikely to be achieved before 2020 even if the economy avoids further shocks before the end of the decade. Record employment? Not really.

John Philpott

previous post
Cameron’s speech on the UK-EU relationship: five key employment laws influenced by Europe
next post
Graduate vacancies and starting salaries to increase in 2013

You may also like

Number of Neet women rises but figures fall...

23 May 2025

UK net migration slashed by half in one...

22 May 2025

How neuroscience can unlock employee recognition

22 May 2025

Fewer workers would comply with a return-to-office mandate

21 May 2025

Pay awards in real terms could fall for...

21 May 2025

UK and EU agree to collaborate on ‘youth...

19 May 2025

Immigration white paper: which jobs will be affected?

19 May 2025

Public sector needs 92,000 more workers to remain...

19 May 2025

Poundland jobs at risk as parent group seeks...

19 May 2025

Minister defends Employment Rights Bill at Acas conference

16 May 2025

  • 2025 Employee Communications Report PROMOTED | HR and leadership...Read more
  • The Majority of Employees Have Their Eyes on Their Next Move PROMOTED | A staggering 65%...Read more
  • Prioritising performance management: Strategies for success (webinar) WEBINAR | In today’s fast-paced...Read more
  • Self-Leadership: The Key to Successful Organisations PROMOTED | Eletive is helping businesses...Read more
  • Retaining Female Talent: Four Ways to Reduce Workplace Drop Out PROMOTED | International Women’s Day...Read more

Personnel Today Jobs
 

Search Jobs

PERSONNEL TODAY

About us
Contact us
Browse all HR topics
Email newsletters
Content feeds
Cookies policy
Privacy policy
Terms and conditions

JOBS

Personnel Today Jobs
Post a job
Why advertise with us?

EVENTS & PRODUCTS

The Personnel Today Awards
The RAD Awards
Employee Benefits
Forum for Expatriate Management
OHW+
Whatmedia

ADVERTISING & PR

Advertising opportunities
Features list 2025

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Instagram
  • Linkedin


© 2011 - 2025 DVV Media International Ltd

Personnel Today
  • Home
    • All PT content
  • Email sign-up
  • Topics
    • HR Practice
    • Employee relations
    • Learning & training
    • Pay & benefits
    • Wellbeing
    • Recruitment & retention
    • HR strategy
    • HR Tech
    • The HR profession
    • Global
    • All HR topics
  • Legal
    • Case law
    • Commentary
    • Flexible working
    • Legal timetable
    • Maternity & paternity
    • Shared parental leave
    • Redundancy
    • TUPE
    • Disciplinary and grievances
    • Employer’s guides
  • AWARDS
    • Personnel Today Awards
    • The RAD Awards
  • Jobs
    • Find a job
    • Jobs by email
    • Careers advice
    • Post a job
  • Brightmine
    • Learn more
    • Products
    • Free trial
    • Request a quote
  • Webinars
  • Advertise
  • OHW+