Government policies aimed at reducing immigration by refocusing on the skills of domestic workers may not succeed in cutting net migration, according to the independent advisory body the Migration Advisory Committee.
A white paper is set to be published early next year setting out how ministers will boost the skills of domestic workers and bring down immigration numbers.
However, the MAC has warned against a “one-size fits all approach” in its annual report published earlier this week. It said that while boosting domestic skills was worthwhile in its own right, it “does not guarantee a substantial reduction in the reliance on the immigration system itself”.
Migrant worker visas
Businesses must develop domestic talent pipelines
Care firms granted sponsor licences despite labour violations
It said some shortages were driven by poor pay and conditions rather than a lack of skills, and that sectors were governed by “individual circumstances” with the impact of investment and skills on immigration varying accordingly.
Employers would often still hire from abroad even when there were enough skilled domestic workers because they “seek the best possible match for their vacancy, which could include international recruits”, said MAC.
The report said that the government recognised that the reason behind shortages varied according to each sector and it had asked the MAC to review the IT and engineering industries.
Net migration fell by 20% from a record high of 906,000 in the year to June 2023 to 728,000 in the year to June 2024, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics last month.
The MAC said it expected numbers to keep falling because of restrictions introduced under the previous Conservative government, including a ban on foreign students and care workers bringing family members to the UK.
Professor Brian Bell, chairman of the MAC, said: “While we are expecting net migration to fall further, we would caution the government against seeing linking immigration and skills policy as a one-size-fits-all approach to bringing down net migration and encourage them to continue to consider individual circumstances within sectors.
“This report develops a methodology for understanding the fiscal impact of migrants on the skilled worker visa, an important metric for understanding whether a route enhances the welfare of the resident population. This analysis will be used to inform future MAC commissions.”
Migrants on the skilled worker visa contributed more to the public finances than they took out, MAC reported. It estimated that the average migrant on the visa had a positive net fiscal impact of £16,300 in 2022/23, whereas the average UK-born adult, had a positive net fiscal impact of £800.
The assessment was based on the skilled worker route, when the minimum salary needed for migrants to qualify for the visa was at £18,600.
In March this year the minimum salary threshold was raised to £38,700.
Sign up to our weekly round-up of HR news and guidance
Receive the Personnel Today Direct e-newsletter every Wednesday
Latest HR job opportunities on Personnel Today
Browse more human resources jobs
