A survey of 500 financial services professionals by City recruitment firm Joslin Rowe found three-quarters expected bonuses to increase on last year’s by about 12%.
The survey said that would see the UK’s bonus pot rise to a huge £20.7bn.
Just 6% of financial services staff expected a decrease, with the remainder believing their bonus will stay the same.
Tara Ricks, managing director of Joslin Rowe Associates, said: “Companies are still absorbing the effect of financial market turmoil, and we should expect lower payouts this year.
“Clearly employees still have overblown bonus expectations. We would anticipate a lot of expectation management in the coming weeks from firms in the sector.”