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A growth in zero hours and short-time working, plus a rise in unfair dismissal claims, could be among the impacts from the cessation of the furlough scheme on 30 September, argues Charlie Thompson, employment partner at Stewarts. With the end of furlough on 30 September it does not take a great deal of foresight to predict there is likely to be a further wave of redundancies. In recent months, redundancy figures have been relatively low. Indeed, in August 2021, they were at their lowest level in seven years. This is likely to be because many employers had already made large scale redundancies in the past 18 months and have no appetite to do a fresh round of morale-sapping job cuts if they can possibly avoid it. When chancellor Rishi Sunak unveiled the furlough scheme in March 2020, he said it would be open for an initial three months. Since then, it has been repeatedly extended, and the cost to employers of keeping staff on furlough has incrementally increased. Against that backdrop, many employers contemplating job cuts will have carried out their redundancy exercises already. However, the number of redundancies will surely increase when the furlough scheme ends. Recent provisional figures show 1.6 million furloughed employments on 31 July 2021. The Resolution Foundation predicts that about 1 million people will still be on furlough on 30 September. With the furlough scheme coming to an end, some employers face the choice between bringing their furloughed staff back in, potentially to do very little work, or to make them redundant. Furthermore, despite the success of the vaccination programme and the relaxation of restrictions, many businesses will continue to be affected by the pandemic, logistical and travel problems, and the harsh economic conditions that will outlast the furlough scheme.
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