Anyone with an eye on workplace trends cannot have escaped the concept of the “great resignation”. But how reliable are predictions that workers are leaving in droves, and is there reason for HR to panic? Jo Faragher reports
Two years after the Covid pandemic began, restrictions across the UK have mostly been removed and offices are opening up once more. But if some predictions are to be believed, employers are going to be losing workers as quickly as they can welcome them back.
The so-called ‘great resignation’ has apparently led millions of workers globally to drop everything and resign, with some surveys predicting as many as one in two workers are considering leaving their jobs.
Other pieces of research have highlighted a great “reshuffle” (people using skills shortages to boost their bargaining power) and the great “rethink” where some people are radically changing how or where they work, or rebalancing how much time they spend with family or hobbies.
But how true are these predictions, and how should HR teams respond?
Breeding tension
One of the most commonly quoted surveys is from Ipsos, suggesting that 47% of British workers are thinking about quitting their job, or are actively searching or applying for another job. This statistic is higher among 16 to 34 year-olds, where 56% have considered quitting or have looked for a new job.
“Intentions are high,” says Trinh Tu, managing director for public affairs at the market research company. “We’ve been tracking employees and businesses through the pandemic and throughout, we’ve seen a lot of reevaluation between work and other priorities in people’s lives.”
“However, the proportion of people who have done something about it is lower,” she adds. “Twenty-nine percent of that 47% are employees who have applied for a new role or negotiated with their employer. This tells you that there is a lot of tension underneath, that the major change brought by the pandemic has made people reflect.”
Ipsos’ research was released in January 2022, the season we’re used to seeing stories around new year job searches, heightened divorce rates and depression. But Tu adds that her company’s latest findings should be taken seriously.
“There has been a fundamental shift in work and priorities,” she adds. “Our data shows that young people in particular are more restless, and are more likely to take action to look for a new job. They’re more likely to negotiate on pay or demand promotion, so if you have a large proportion of younger workers, you need to be more vigilant.”
Troughs before peaks
Tu points to official figures from the Office for National Statistics, which show the proportion of people moving from one job to another at a record high of 3.2% in the last quarter of 2021.
But John Boys, chief economist at the CIPD, points out that this high was preceded by a huge drop.
“In uncertain times, sticking with your current employer is a safer bet. This reduction in churn/turnover we might label the great suppression,” he explained in a recent blog.
Early in the pandemic, job vacancies fell as business confidence was hit, yet the unemployment rate remained relatively low because people were not looking for work. (If someone is technically unemployed, they must be looking for work, if not they are economically ‘inactive’, Boys explains.)
When sectors such as hospitality reopened, many employees looked for new jobs and we witnessed high churn and recruitment difficulties, something Boys describes as the “great unbunching”.
Resignations are now growing, according to Boys’ analysis, standing at about 40% more than pre-pandemic. But at the same time, employees are not necessarily looking for new jobs in greater numbers; rather there are high rates of people successfully getting new jobs when they do look.
What’s the question?
Independent statistician Nigel Marriott stresses the importance of considering the questions researchers are asking before basing any strategic decisions on survey findings.
People join new companies but are not having the same experience of onboarding they might have had prior to the pandemic, so half of these people leave too.” – Chris French, Workhuman
“Sometimes what is measured is not the objective people are interested in,” he says. “So you could ask a sample whether people in London are sleep deprived by asking them to report how many hours of sleep they have had. But is that a fair estimate of sleep deprivation? And do you mean people living in London or working there?”
“When you read about something, also think about the nature of the evidence offered,” adds Marriott. He describes a hierarchy of evidence that features belief at the bottom, followed by anecdotal (‘I believe there’s a great resignation because three of my friends have left their jobs’); observational (more structured data collection); experiment (scientific comparison) and formal mathematical logic.
“Just because something’s a belief, doesn’t mean it is wrong, but your bias should be towards strong observational or experiment-based data. What happens with a lot of surveys is they are presented as scientific but they’re only a collection of anecdotes, even if there are 2,000 of them. For example, a survey of disabled people that only asks wheelchair users.”
Indeed, if we look more closely at some of the claims about the great resignation, the figures don’t necessarily show high levels of employee churn, but a feeling among many employees that the grass could be greener.
Double whammy
That does not mean managers should remain complacent, however. Chris French, executive vice president of customer strategy at recognition software company Workhuman, says his company’s employee experience index is showing double the level of workers thinking of leaving compared to just before the pandemic.
“The number of people thinking of leaving was around 21% in December 2019 but has been at about 40% for a year. The difference now is that many of these people are actually leaving – this isn’t a theoretical construct from an economist.”
The impact of this goes further than having to recruit for replacements, he adds. “Seeing other people leave makes people more likely to think about leaving themselves. And then, people join new companies but are not having the same experience of onboarding they might have had prior to the pandemic, so half of these people leave too.”
If people are considering a new role, they often look for confirmation that this is the right decision, says French. Organisations can counter this by reminding employees of the positive elements of working there – a lot of which has been lost in the move to remote and hybrid working.
“When you start to think about leaving, your brain is looking for ways to rationalise that,” he adds. “If you’re not counteracting that with positivity, these feelings can run amok, and everything they see will reinforce their desire to leave.”
Encouraging managers to be more human and intentional in their interaction with employees – rather than a transactional relationship where they simply dole out tasks – reinforces the idea that it would be “human beings not a faceless corporation” they leave behind.
And if people do leave, that human connection means they’re likely to come back. “Boomerang employees are easier to onboard, they already have social connections and their time to productivity is quicker,” French explains.
Focus on culture
Justin Rix, partner and head of people advisory at accounting firm Grant Thornton, agrees. “The old adage that people leave their manager, not their employer, is still often the case. Regular development training will help ensure they’re equipped with the skills needed to manage and provide appropriate support to a hybrid workforce,” he says.
Grant Thornton’s own research found that almost two-thirds (63%) of mid-market companies are experiencing unusually high attrition rates, with 50% struggling to replace talent that has been lost. Almost two-thirds are offering higher salaries for new roles, but is this sustainable?
“Job seekers now consider a much broader picture when deciding where they want to work and a company’s overall employer brand and offering has never been more important,” adds Rix.
“While salary and benefits will always be high priority, people also now place much more importance on other aspects of the employee proposition such as the long-term development opportunities, the workplace culture, an employer’s focus on wellbeing and inclusion and diversity, to name just a few. Many in the mid-market are already focusing on this which will put them in good stead for the future.
Apply your own context
As with any labour market trend, the key is for organisations to adapt their response to their own context. “Each business is experiencing its own difficulties with hiring at the moment, so while there is a wealth of research and opinion out there substantiating this claim, it’s unfair to say that these figures apply to all businesses across the UK,” says Darren Jaffrey, general manager of EMEA and APAC at video interview technology company Hirevue.
The company has done its own research into turnover and found that in 2021, 55% of UK businesses experienced higher turnover than they did in 2020. In response, 48% targeted older workers to help solve shortages, investing heavily in learning and development. More than half prioritised internal promotions to reduce the risk of resignations.
“There is no need for businesses to panic. While they definitely need to rethink retention tactics, the current resignation and retention crisis isn’t as ominous and negative as it seems.” – Darren Jaffrey, Hirevue
“There is no need for businesses to panic,” he adds. “While they definitely need to rethink retention tactics, the current resignation and retention crisis isn’t as ominous and negative as it seems. It actually presents hiring teams with a great opportunity to review and refresh processes to improve operations in the long run.”
Taking this approach to a micro level will also help, argues Dean Corbett, chief people officer of Avado. “I personally recommend informal weekly meetings with teams, as it’s a great way to build trust and rapport with employees, allowing you to gain first hand insight and communicate that employee engagement and feedback is valued and will be acted upon,” he says.
Data will also support how you respond in terms of retention tactics, he adds. “Without reliable and trustworthy data, people teams will be unable to identify the cause for employees feeling undervalued.
“Personalisation is a great way to build on positive feelings and steer people away from negative sentiments. This could be small changes of policies such as providing new starters with an allowance to buy additional equipment they may require. Doing this lets employees know that their needs are a priority for the organisation.”
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However “great” the level of attrition is in any given sector or organisation, ensuring employees are onboarded well, feel safe to air concerns and are confident to get on with their work can only be a positive thing.
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